Dodgers News: Joey Votto Predicts Shohei Ohtani Is About to Explode After Early Slump
Former NL MVP Joey Votto says Shohei Ohtani’s struggles are fixable — and predicts a huge season is still ahead.
Originally Published on Dodgersbeat.com
LOS ANGELES, CA — The Los Angeles Dodgers’ early-season stretch has sparked plenty of digital hand-wringing. At the center of the anxiety is a string of hitless games and a visual discomfort at the plate from global superstar Shohei Ohtani. Hitting .240 with a slugging percentage sitting at an uncharacteristic .427, Ohtani looks—dare we say it—human.
But according to former NL MVP and six-time All-Star Joey Votto, everyone needs to take a deep breath.
Speaking on MLB Now, Votto provided a masterclass in hitting mechanics to break down exactly what is happening with Ohtani. His ultimate conclusion? “It’s not possible for him to fail.”
Here is the mechanical reality behind Ohtani’s metrics, and why a massive breakout is inevitable for the Dodgers’ designated hitter.
The Diagnostics: The Up-and-Away “Blind Spot”
To understand Ohtani’s current stretch, you have to look at how right-handed pitchers are attacking him. Votto points directly to the upper and outer parts of the strike zone—specifically pitches that are middle-up, away, and up-and-away.
Votto calls this the hitter’s “blind spot zone.” When a hitter is at his absolute peak, he lets these pitches travel deep into the zone, allowing him to drive the ball with immense power to center and left-center field. Right now, Ohtani is just a tick out of sync.
“To me, it’s as simple as the up-and-away pitch, the middle-up pitch, and the away pitch,” Votto explained. “Those are the pitches that you want deeper in the zone, and you have to be able to back the ball up in your swing… Right now, I see a hitter that’s just slightly, slightly off.”
The BP Proof: Chasing “Straight Lines”
Votto recently watched Ohtani take a rare outdoor batting practice session, and the eye test backed up the data. He noticed Ohtani hooking and pulling a few pitches that he usually drives up the middle.
In the elite hitter’s mind, pulling the ball isn’t inherently bad, but the feeling matters. Great hitters want to see and feel “straight lines” coming off the bat, even on pulled balls. When a hitter rolls over or generates top-spin, it means they aren’t square to the baseball.
Ohtani is currently rushing his mechanics slightly rather than letting the ball travel that extra millimeter deep into the box.
The Metrics: The Comfort Feedback Loop
The statistical shift in Ohtani’s plate discipline metrics seems alarming at first glance:
- Chase Rate: Up to 30% (compared to 26% over the last two years).
- Z-Swing (Swings at strikes): Down to 60% (from 68%).
- Meatball Swings: Down to 69% (from 77%).
Votto attributes this to a psychological and visual feedback loop. Right now, Ohtani feels incredibly confident and comfortable hitting pitches that are tucked close to his body. Because he is locked into the inner half, pitches on the outer half or high in the zone visually look further away than they actually are. As a result, a hitter stops pulling the trigger on legitimate strikes away, or they alter their swing shape to reach for them, causing the metrics to dip.
Is the Mound Draining the Plate?
With Ohtani pulling double duty and pitching to an elite 0.82 ERA, it’s easy to wonder if his focus on the mound is sapping his offensive energy.
Votto flatly rejects that narrative.
He emphasizes that power is Ohtani’s baseline, default setting. It requires the least amount of forced effort from him. The fact that Ohtani still boasts a plus on-base percentage (.370) despite not feeling his best mechanically is actually a terrifying sign for the rest of the league.
The Bottom Line for Blue Heaven
Ohtani’s bat speed is down a mere 1 to 1.5 mph—a negligible difference that mirrors Aaron Judge‘s early-season metrics during high-OPS campaigns.
The fix is entirely structural, not physical. Once Ohtani flattens out his swing path and rediscovers the length in his extension, his bat speed will instantly tick back up. He will start owning the up-and-away strike again, flushing straight lines into the gaps, and the home runs will follow.
Votto’s final forecast for Ohtani’s season should have Dodgers fans thrilled for the summer months:
“I think we might have a guy who puts together a couple of [three-win months]… and puts together one of the all-time great seasons. It’s going to be a blast to watch.”